EFFETS DE SEUILS DANS LA RELATION ENTRE INFLATION ET CROISSANCE ÉCONOMIQUE DANS LA COMMUNAUTÉ ECONOMIQUE ET MONÉTAIRE DE L’AFRIQUE CENTRALE (CEMAC) : CAS DU CAMEROUN ET DU CONGO-BRAZZAVILLE

M. LOUBASSOU NGANGA, J. I. TENDELET

Résumé


Le but de cette étude est d’estimer un seuil d’inflation dans la relation entre l’inflation et la croissance dans la Communauté Économique et Monétaire de l’Afrique Centrale plus précisément du Cameroun et du Congo-Brazzaville. L’analyse, faite sur la base du modèle à seuil, a permis de montrer l’existence d’une relation non linéaire entre l’inflation et la croissance économique au Cameroun et au Congo-Brazzaville. Autrement dit, il existe un seuil d’inflation au Cameroun et au Congo-Brazzaville qui est respectivement de 5 % et de 10 % en dessous duquel toute mesure de politique monétaire expansionniste favoriserait la croissance économique. Par contre, au-delà du taux d’inflation de 5% pour le Cameroun et de 10 % pour le Congo-Brazzaville, l’inflation est négativement corrélée avec la croissance économique. Ces résultats indiquent également que les autorités monétaires de la CEMAC peuvent un peu relâcher les contraintes des règles communautaires du taux d’inflation < 3%.


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